Tensions
have been brewing for months in the governing coalitions of both
crises are provoked by different reasons.
In
largely to blame for the coalition-splitting row between the Hungarian
Socialist Party (MSZP) and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ), rather than
personal antagonism between the leaders of the two parties, Ferenc Gyurcsány
and János Kóka. By contrast, in
personal differences of opinion between Social Democratic Party of Austria
chairman Alfred Gusenbauer and Austrian People’s Party chairman Wilhelm
Molterer are the main cause of the conflict.
symptoms, however, are similar in both countries. The popularity ratings of all
four key figures have taken a plunge. Their level of support within their own
parties is also falling, and they face increasing criticism from party members
for being arrogant and out of touch. A further similarity is the issue which
has acted as the final straw: tax policy. In passing it is worth noting that in
both countries there have been incidents of candid remarks not intended for the
public being picked up by microphones.
Two heads are better than one
However, it
is not the surprisingly large number of parallels which make the Austrian
coalition crisis relevant for
The two coalition crises result from two quite different situations and the
similarity of the symptoms could also be coincidental. In fact, it is primarily
the ideas for resolving the conflict which make a glance beyond the country
borders worthwhile for both sides. Alongside solutions such as calling early
elections – now on the agenda in Austria – or breaking up the coalition and
forming a minority government – currently the favourite among the alternatives
publicly discussed in Hungary – some original approaches can also be found.
original idea for ending the coalition crisis: in order to ease tensions, the
double resignation of the two party leaders has been considered. That could
also be a possible solution for
The idea may take some getting used to, but should not be dismissed out of
hand. Particularly tricky crisis situations demand special measures. Since
there are currently no indications of Gyurcsány and Kóka recovering from their
plunge in popularity, there is no reason why such a radical solution should not
be considered. Both parties are short of time as well as being short of voters.
If they want to have even a flicker of a chance against Fidesz in the next
general elections, scheduled to be held in two years’ time, they need to make
personnel changes as soon as possible.
‘Lesser evil’ wanes
Until
recently the coalition parties were able to rely on the fact that a bare
majority of voters still saw them as the lesser evil compared to Fidesz led by
its highly divisive chairman Viktor Orbán. This has now changed. The
government’s weak performance and lack of good sense are becoming increasingly
difficult to conceal. The government
appears more and more to be driven by the need to be seen to be doing
something, often resulting in serious gaffes. As a result for a majority of the
population Fidesz, rather than the MSZP, now enjoys the pleasant status of
being seen as the lesser evil.
Overwhelming victory without Viktor
At the
moment it seems that there is nothing and nobody standing in the way of an
election victory for Fidesz. To that extent, Fidesz has the least incentive to
make changes. However, in order to secure its victory and perhaps even with the
aim of a two-thirds majority, the party could still consider a change to the
party leadership. If heads really do roll at the top of the coalition parties,
Fidesz could follow suit, turning
double solution into a triple solution for
In contrast
to the two coalition parties, Fidesz does not need to worry about a suitable
replacement. Nor would Orbán need to worry about the end of his political
career. After all, the state also offers attractive top positions. And he
wouldn’t need to turn his back on the party leadership forever. Ultimately, it
could also be a solution, although it may sound paradoxical at first, for Orbán
to replace himself at the top of Fidesz, as a variation on himself. Given
Orbán’s great ability as a political chameleon, this would not be an entirely
improbable scenario. Hunger for power can sometimes work miracles. The
confrontational Orbán could bow out, making way for a more conciliatory Orbán,
who respects parliamentary democracy, the market economy and freedom of the
press – all the things Orbán advocated at the time of the change of system. As
a result he should not find such a transformation particularly troublesome.
Finally, of course, it would also help the country if the new Orbán could be at
ease on the international stage and just as welcome a guest in the neighbouring
countries as in the US or in Russia, Hungary’s strategic raw materials supplier
and market.
Is this
just wishful thinking? Possibly. However, Orbán’s comments and tactical moves
in the last few months offer several hints that he is planning to take the
first step towards what is perhaps a general renewal of party leaders.
