Natural gas
dependence of European countries on Russia (Russian gas as a percentage of total pipeline
imports)
Countries from top to bottom: Finland, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Czech Republic, Austria, Germany, Belgium, Italy, France, Netherlands, Ireland
Even if the European Union is only planning economic sanctions in the third round of “penalties” against the aggressor Russia, it is still worth estimating the possible consequences for Hungary.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said in this context right before the beginning of an extraordinary EU summit this month that the sanctions would certainly not impact on the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant. Orbán and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on this in January, and Orbán said no one in Brussels believed that the Russian partner should be removed from the agreement.
Such a move to punish Russia for its disregard of democracy would not be completely absurd though, because the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already raised the idea concerning the nuclear power plant in Temelin, where a consortium that includes Russia’s Atomstroyexport is one of the bidders for a tender to expand the plant.
Orbán has managed to defend the Hungarian point of view, although taking into account the new situation concerning the Crimea he will not stand up aggressively for his politics of opening towards the East – Russia included – any more. So he waits and he can only hope that the situation will not turn for the worse.
The interests are simply too intertwined in this case. Although exports from Hungary and the other Central Eastern European countries to Russia are not large, there is a huge dependency on the import side, especially on energy. Hungary for instance sources 80% of its imported natural gas from Russia (even if the Hungarian-Slovakian gas stream that has just opened will diversify the situation a little). The leading Hungarian commercial bank, OTP, realises about 10% of its business volume in Ukraine; its position in Russia is minor.
It looks like Europe must suffer again because of a conflict between the superpowers, since the commercial volume between the EU and Russia has more than tripled in the last decade. This kind of dynamic can simply not be found within the “old“ Europe any more, causing a growing number of Polish, Czech and Hungarian enterprises to dust off the good old contacts from the Soviet era.
The Czech IHK has predicted that 20-40,000 jobs could be endangered if a commercial war against Russia breaks out, and we could see a similar situation in Hungary, where Orbán has been hoping to reap the results of the Eastern opening policy that he has been following for the past four years.
For the time being the EU has only applied travel bans against the politicians and oligarchs. The EU-Russia summit planned for June has been cancelled, as well as high-level bilateral meetings. As it appears today, the twelve million euro deal between Putin and Orbán was made just in time.
“It looks like Europe must suffer again because of a conflict between the superpowers” – what exactly does that mean? Which superpowers? Ukraine counts as a superpower? KGB would be proud of such twisted propaganda of “The BP Times” commies.
In 1956 during the Hungarian Revolt, I watched the Hungarian people attack invading Soviet tanks with rocks and bottles of gasoline (a.k.a. Molotov cocktails). At the time I was all of five years old watching almost unarmed Hungarians gunned down in a heroic attempt to free their country and no one helped. Their heroism defined me and the way I feel about life. What are those patriots thinking now as they look down from heaven and see Hungarians worrying about how Hungary’s economy is affected from Ukrainian trouble caused by a mad Russian tyrant who was trained by the same Soviets that had oppressed Hungary? What do the patriots of the Hungarian Revolt think that are still alive? Hungary could at least be sending Ukraine weapons and intelligence reports while holding military exercises in north-eastern Hungary in coordination with Poland holding military exercises in south-eastern Poland. At the same time as the Baltic States are doing military exercises in the eastern part of those countries. If NATO does nothing as Putin takes the Ukraine, what do you think will happen when Putin takes the Baltic States? When the Baltic States are devoured by Putin, where will NATO stand when Hungary and Poland are next on the lists? NATO without the United States against a victorious narcissistic Putin in control of a nuclear Russia…be serious.