The election is only two days away and the fresh projections of three pollsters suggest that Fidesz will almost certainly come away victorious this Sunday. Though the governing party lost the 2002 election despite being ahead in the polls, this time it’s different: the gap is much wider and the number of undecided voters is lower than 12 years ago.
Support for the ruling Fidesz-Christian Democrat alliance rose from 37% in February to 40% by March among all voters, said pollster Nézőpont. Backing for the main rival left-of-centre Governmental Change alliance was 19%, one percentage point up from the previous month. Radical nationalist Jobbik remained unchanged at 12%. From among the smaller parties, only opposition LMP is seen by Nézőpont as standing a chance of entering Parliament but it is just below the 5% threshold for seats. Nézőpont estimated the Fidesz- KDNP alliance can count on 2.5 million voters, the left alliance about 1.5 million and Jobbik 820,000.
The ruling Fidesz party had a firm lead over opposition parties in a poll taken just three weeks before the general election this Sunday, pollster Tárki said last week. Forty-three per cent said they would re-elect the government while 36% opted for a change. Of the whole population, 38% supported the governing parties while the five-party left-of-centre opposition alliance had 16% support and the radical nationalist Jobbik party 15%. The small opposition LMP party had 4% support in the whole sample. Two per cent of respondents cited voting for “other parties”, 19% said they would not vote for any of the listed parties and another 6% declined to respond. Among respondents with clear voting preferences, Fidesz had 51% support, as against 21% supporting the five-party opposition alliance, 20% Jobbik and 6% LMP. Other parties were supported by 2% in this group as well. Fifty-four per cent of voters promised to turn out, Tárki said, adding that a higher turnout would favour the opposition and a lower turnout could be the make-or-break point for LMP, whose support is near the 5% entry threshold to Parliament.
Századvég: most voters say Orbán-Mesterházy TV debate unnecessary
The majority of Hungarians do not think it necessary for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Attila Mesterházy, prime minister candidate for the Governmental Change opposition alliance, to hold a televised debate before the general election, the results of a fresh survey by the right-leaning Századvég showed. Seventy-seven per cent of respondents predicted a victory for the ruling parties in the election this Sunday. Only 8% expected that the five-party alliance led by Mesterházy would win, Századvég said, adding that a majority of leftist voters are prepared for a defeat. In the current situation 58% of voters said it was unnecessary to hold an Orbán-Mesterházy debate. Only 30% said the debate would be important, the pollster said.
The last election poll of Századvég was released on Monday and it suggests that Fidesz somewhat widened its lead ahead of the leftist alliance and Jobbik increased its base. Support for Fidesz among all voters inched up a point to 33%, against the leftist alliance losing a point since February to 19%. Jobbik has continued to increase its support to gain 14%, compared to 13% in February and 11% in the previous month. Support for opposition LMP continued to hover around the 5% parliamentary threshold. Among voters with a clear party preference Fidesz retained its 51% support, the five-party left alliance lost 2 points to 25% and Jobbik gained 2 points to 18%. LMP in this group had a support of 5%. The proportion of undecided voters dropped further to 27%, from 29% in February.