Looks like the 2010
result of Jobbik was not just a flash in the pan.
(Photo: MTI)
It’s hard to believe that in a few months it will be twenty-five years since the great upheaval of people power swept across Central and Eastern Europe, changing our continent for the better and ending over four decades of Cold War. True, Hungary struggled, fought and at times bled behind the Iron Curtain in a history that has come to define this country.
But here we are a quarter of a century later and any doubt that the era of “post-communism” is over was answered on Sunday, because Hungary voted for continuity and reaffirmed the mandate it gave to its government in 2010. This is a country that showed faith in the direction it is going, not confused by the choices presented and not tempted to look back to the past for ideas. Also hard to believe that this was Hungary’s seventh free election since 1990.
The stereotypical position of Hungary as a “former Eastern bloc” country, still “learning democracy”, was no longer relevant for anybody who lives, works or does business here, but the fact Hungary has decided to continue on the centre-right path, however, banishes that idea forever. This is a country that has a direction and is open for business.
Politically the changes here were not huge. Fidesz remains by far and away the largest party. Almost half the votes in the election were secured by them and it wasn’t a surprise. The governing party didn’t really have to campaign; it was always considered a foregone conclusion that they’d win. The only question was by how much and would the “supermajority” come again.
About an hour after the polls opened I took a walk down to the Bálna centre where there was a lot of Fidesz activity. Upon asking one of the gentlemen unloading from the trucks outside what was going on, he cheerfully told me: “We’re setting up for the victory rally tonight.” For me, this summed up the entire election, that it was democracy being practised for democracy’s sake. The election had to take place but the outcome was always clear, and in that way it reminded me of Tony Blair’s second election as prime minister in the UK.
Like Fidesz, Blair’s Labour Party had won their previous election by a landslide, the opposition were in disarray and it was a given that they would be re-elected. In this British election in 2001 we all went through the motions and we all did the things we were supposed to do; the debates, the questions, the opinions, despite the election being little more than a rubber stamp for four more years.
So what occurred on Sunday in Hungary did not shake things up, it did the opposite. The positive side to this is that Hungary showed stability within its system, it showed belief in its democratic choice – despite the sour grapes from some opposition figures, some of whom questioned the democratic integrity of the Fidesz victory and the election process as a whole.
The prime minister, who becomes Hungary’s first re-elected leader since the transition, said: “This match started this morning at 0-0. Now we have to win it.” But I wonder did he really believe that himself? It always seemed like Fidesz was starting with a two-goal head-start. A man as shrewd as Viktor Orbán must have surveyed the field and seen that himself. Nothing indicated at any stage that there would be a surprise or a huge shift away from the Fidesz government.
But perhaps apathy has crept in. Fidesz actually received fewer votes this time, according to Index.hu. When the votes are given in real terms, compared to the lower turnout at this election, the party lost a staggering 640,000 votes from 2010. Still enough for another supermajority but this complacency should shake up the party.
For the prime minister, his leadership, his policies and his character have been vindicated. Hungary by far made its choice and they chose to stick with him. The comeback is now complete; 2010’s return to power was huge for him but to win re-election this time round may be Mr. Orbán’s most impressive moment. After all, the last time he sought re-election Hungary rejected him. The smart money may even wager that he’ll be in with another good chance in four more years.
The will was there but the Együtt (Together 2014) collation never really looked like a force that could change the political landscape despite their high profile and proactive campaign. Perhaps next time the left will do better but big changes will have to be made. Despite being resigned to another four years in opposition, many of the Együtt supporters I spoke to on election day were surprised by the high turnout of youth voters who came out to vote for Together 2014. Many of these young people, born after 1989, were voting in their first election.
Despite being beaten this at least proves that progressive, European-style, social democracy has a place in Hungary’s political future if not perhaps its governance. It will now be up to these youngsters to take the torch from the more established left-wing figures and build their own movement from grass roots. This was a theory echoed by Timea Szabó, the top female candidate on the left coalition list, who said: “We must renew politics and the left wing from the bottom up. I am sure it will succeed in 2018.”
Perhaps the biggest change here is not political, it is psychological. For many people, myself included, it is easy to think of Hungarian politics in shades of red and orange, left and right. But whatever hangover there was from 2010, where Hungary became a three-party state, has now cleared. The political landscape includes, without any doubt, Jobbik.
Love them as many do, or loathe them like many others, this party is now established. As I write this piece, close to midnight on election day, 87% of the votes have been counted. Projections show that Jobbik took 20% of the total votes. This means that one in five Hungarian voters chose their party.
This for me is the most interesting element of 2014’s election, that Jobbik was not just a flash in the pan, and they have solidified and expanded their position. Outside of Hungary people tend to think of them as a protest party, a phenomenon that gained support at the expense of a shattered opposition. In some ways they are correct but that way of thinking has been broken. Over the next four years we will see if the rest of Hungarian politics will bring those voters back or if Jobbik will expand its influence further. This is a party that is here to stay.
Amen.