The municipal elections across the country on 12 October are unlikely to see national conservative governing party Fidesz repeat its landslide victory in the same polls four years ago, which included Budapest, with its traditionally left-liberal orientation. We examine the possibilities in the major cities and the districts of Budapest.
Szeged (with about 170,000 inhabitants) is a bastion of the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), and its László Botka has been in power for the past 12 years. Botka is the only leftist politician heading a capital city in the 19 counties. At the last municipal elections in 2010 he managed to gain seven percentage points over his challenger from Fidesz. His Fidesz opponent now is János Kothencz, who has minimal chance of unseating the still popular Botka.
Cities where anything can happen
Salgótarján (more than 36,000 inhabitants) is one of the cities where the left parties are running a joint candidate for mayor, in the person of local MSZP leader Dóra Ottó. She is challenging the incumbent Fidesz mayor, Melinda Székyné Sztrémi, who has been directing the city for the past eight years. Ottó has a good chance of winning because the left parties are gaining influence in Salgótarján.
Szekszárd (over 33,000 inhabitants) also promises an exciting race. Green party LMP’s candidate, Ákos Hadházy, is offering a strong challenge to Fidesz candidate Rezső Ács, who was deputy mayor. Mayor István Horváth, who has held the position for the past eight years, is standing down. He opted out of Fidesz after citing what he called its machinations, particularly the distribution of tobacco shop concessions.
Szombathely (almost 80,000 citizens) looks to be close too. Following a certain cocaine affair concerning former deputy mayor Viktor Lazáry, Fidesz is starting from a poor position. The left challenger of incumbent Fidesz mayor Tivadar Puskás is the MSZP’s György Ipkovich, who was mayor from 2002 to 2010. Ipkovich is respected even by his political opponents.
Incumbents of Győr and Szeged Zsolt Borkai and László Botka (opposite page) are almost certain winners
Large cities that are hard to predict
Békéscsaba (over 60,000 citizens) has been connected to the name of Fidesz politician Gyula Vantara since 2006. After the government barred people from being both a mayor and MP, Vantara opted to sit in Parliament and resign as mayor. Thus deputy mayor Miklós Hanó will be the Fidesz candidate. Hanó’s challenger from the left will be MSZP politician Attila Miklós. At the European elections in May Fidesz won 46% of the vote in Békéscsaba and the unified left gained 39%, setting the scene for a possible close result on 12 October.
Commentators expect an exciting finish in Miskolc, where the 160,000 inhabitants include many Roma. The traditionally left-oriented industrial city was conquered by Fidesz in 2010. The mayor, Ákos Kriza, has attracted unwelcome attention with his desire to evict sections of the Roma population. His left-side challenger is the former police chief of the city, Albert Pásztor, who has also stirred controversy with critical comments about the Roma minority. Péter Jakab, the candidate of far-right Jobbik, should not be under-estimated but it looks to be close between Kriza and Pásztor.
Nyíregyháza (around 120,000 citizens) could also produce a close race. The town was ruled by the left in the four legislative periods from 1994 to 2010, led by mayor Lászlóné Csabai (MSZP). In 2010 though, Fidesz politician Ferenc Kovács triumphed. It is not yet known who will be his challenger from the left; a charismatic person will stand a good chance.
Pécs (almost 160,000 inhabitants) has been led by Fidesz politician Zsolt Páva since a by-election in 2009. Numerous contenders are running for mayor in the former left stronghold. János Kővári, a former long-standing ally of Páva, is standing in the colours of “Cooperation for Pécs”. The candidate of MSZP and Together-PM is Ágnes Kovács. Former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s Democratic Coalition is promoting Mária Kunszt, a former deputy mayor of Nyíregyháza. Green party LMP is backing Lóránt Keresztes. So expect excitement in Pécs.
Cities where a Fidesz victory is certain
There are 15 cities and towns where Fidesz can already buy the champagne because the left parties have virtually no chance: in Debrecen (around 207,000 citizens), Dunaújváros (almost 50,000), Eger (almost 60,000), Érd (over 60,000), Győr (around 130,000), Hódmezővásárhely (around 45,000), Kaposvár (almost 70,000), Kecskemét (110,000-plus), Nagykanizsa (around 50,000), Sopron (around 60,000), Székesfehérvár (around 100,000), Szolnok (around 75,000), Tatabánya (around 70,000), Veszprém (population around 63,000) and Zalaegerszeg (more than 60,000).
Most districts in Budapest favour Fidesz
In Budapest, Fidesz is expected to be victorious in most districts, especially I, II, V, XI, XII, XVI, XVII and XXII. Fidesz also has a good chance in III, IV, VI, VIII, X, XV and XXIII (Soroksár). The left parties have good odds in IX, XIII, XIX, XX and XXI. Districts VII, XIV and XVIII are too close to call.
