From a diplomatic aspect, the joint press conference by the German chancellor and the Hungarian prime minister revealed some disagreements over the concept of illiberal democracy, the treatment of NGOs and the media. Left-leaning think-tank Political Capital provides a flash analysis.
Chancellor Merkel’s visit was a highly anticipated event in Hungary. The government, opposition parties and civic organisations looked forward to it with high expectations. The governing Fidesz and the pro-government media emphasised that the visit was part of a secret German diplomatic effort aimed at reconciling Russia with the help of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. On the other hand, opposition parties and social movements hoped to hear open and harsh criticism of his illiberal tendencies.
However, even before Merkel’s arrival there were clear signs of a freeze in German-Hungarian relations. German diplomacy had long postponed the visit, whose preparation took a very long time. While, as stated by Orbán in a January 30 interview on public radio, there are no disagreements between Hungary and Germany, there were many signs ahead of her arrival that the Hungarian side would try to make concession to Germany on a number of issues.
On January 1 Hungary resumed gas deliveries to Ukraine; Merkel repeatedly praised this step during the joint press conference. The Hungarian government started negotiations on the disputed advertisement tax with international media outlet RTL. In a speech on January 26, Orbán acknowledged Hungary’s responsibility for the Holocaust. Hungary supported the extension of sanctions on Russia at the European Union foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on January 29.
All this indicated that the government wished to prepare the ground for an amicable visit that Orbán could then exploit in domestic politics, stating that the country is not isolated in Europe and the government may rely on German support. However, the chancellor’s visit did not fulfil his expectations.
According to Political Capital, the tone of the chancellor’s remarks was more scathing than anticipated. Though the visit was a political failure for the government, the German side can claim some clear credits. First, it is very likely that the Hungarian state will buy a bigger stake in a power plant owned by RWE, and the German company can expect a generous offer, similar to the buy-out of MKB bank from Bayerische Landesbank. In the near future the government plans to amend the controversial truck-tracking system (EKÁER) introduced this year to prevent cross-border VAT evasion.
As far as foreign policy is concerned, it is still opaque whether Orbán is ready to confront Russia and support further sanctions against Moscow to regain some of his lost credibility in the West – while a gas deal between Hungary and Russia should be completed this year and it provides the Russian side a comfortable bargaining position for the meeting between Orbán and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest on February 17.
On the one hand, Orbán planned to reconcile the differences between his and Merkel’s government and to break out of isolation. The mere fact that the meeting took place allows him to send a message to the public that he is not treated as a pariah in the West. On the other hand, Orbán may have hoped to publicly tone down his seesaw politics by explicitly stating that Hungary would follow Germany’s path in foreign policy and meet its minimum requirements (e.g. support of extension of sanctions and supplying Ukraine with gas).
Orbán tried to position himself as a mediator between Russia and Germany – but he appears to have failed. Merkel clearly left the option of a Eurasian Economic Union in the far future, stating that sanctions are necessary until peace is re-established between Russia and Ukraine. By all signs, agreement between her and Orbán is limited to broad issues and remains on the surface.
The German side had its successes. The government will decrease the burden on Bertelsmann. János Lázár, the Minister in charge of the Prime Minister’s Office, has already announced that the government will make the advertisement tax flat, which will significantly decrease the financial effect on RTL Klub.
After having been criticised openly by Merkel, Orbán might seek relief and respect from Putin. And the latter will have an immediate blackmail potential given that gas contracts between Hungary and Russia are about to expire, and “cheap energy” is a cornerstone of Orbán’s policies. However, that would deteriorate relations with Germany and the EU even more, which, in turn, may backfire in the middle term.
